San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Ramón Laureano LF
- 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. RF
- 3 Jackson Merrill CF
- 4 Manny Machado 3B
- 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 6 Gavin Sheets 1B
- 7 Nick Castellanos DH
- 8 Freddy Fermin C
- 9 Jake Cronenworth 2B
- 1 Oneil Cruz CF
- 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds LF
- 4 Ryan O'Hearn RF
- 5 Marcell Ozuna DH
- 6 Nick Gonzales 3B
- 7 Spencer Horwitz 1B
- 8 Konnor Griffin SS
- 9 Henry Davis C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-0 with SD listed first across 1 prior meeting.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.71 vs actual lineup 4.77
- Player execution +0.23 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.77 projection by 0.23 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.29 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Jr. 0-for-4 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.10 vs actual lineup 4.09
- Player execution −4.09 R/G Players fell 4.09 short of the lineup's 4.09 projection (scored 0)
- Game variance −4.10 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Horwitz 2-for-3 from the 7-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 4.1 — actual was 5 – 0.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.