Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Alex Bregman 3B
- 3 Ian Happ LF
- 4 Carson Kelly C
- 5 Michael Busch 1B
- 6 Dansby Swanson SS
- 7 Matt Shaw RF
- 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 9 Miguel Amaya DH
- 1 Yandy Díaz DH
- 2 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 3 Jake Fraley RF
- 4 Junior Caminero 3B
- 5 Chandler Simpson LF
- 6 Nick Fortes C
- 7 Cedric Mullins CF
- 8 Ben Williamson 2B
- 9 Taylor Walls SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| TB | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-0 with CHC listed first across 1 prior meeting.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.84 vs actual lineup 3.75
- Player execution +0.25 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.75 projection by 0.25 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.16 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Shaw HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.00 vs actual lineup 4.00
- Player execution +2.00 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.00 projection by 2.00 (scored 6)
- Game variance +2.00 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Mullins HR from the 7-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.8 – 4.0 — actual was 4 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.