ARCHIVE April 5, 2026
April 5, 2026 · AL West

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics

April 5, 2026Sutter Health ParkPartly Cloudy 78°F · 4 mph, Out To RF
AWAY
Houston Astros
6-4
10
vs
HOME
Oakland Athletics
3-6
12

Starting pitchers

AWAY · HOU
Lance McCullers Jr.
Lance McCullers Jr.
IP 4
HOME · ATH
Jacob Lopez
Jacob Lopez
IP 4.1

Lineups

AWAY · HOU
  1. 1 Jose Altuve 2B
  2. 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
  3. 3 Carlos Correa 3B
  4. 4 Christian Walker 1B
  5. 5 Cam Smith RF
  6. 6 Yainer Diaz C
  7. 7 Jake Meyers CF
  8. 8 Joey Loperfido LF
  9. 9 Nick Allen SS
HOME · ATH
  1. 1 Nick Kurtz 1B
  2. 2 Shea Langeliers C
  3. 3 Tyler Soderstrom LF
  4. 4 Brent Rooker DH
  5. 5 Jacob Wilson SS
  6. 6 Lawrence Butler CF
  7. 7 Max Muncy 3B
  8. 8 Jeff McNeil 2B
  9. 9 Carlos Cortes RF

Box score

  12345678910 R
HOU 0000302401 10
ATH 0000504003 12

Manager comparison

Both managers grade D+ / C- entering this matchup.

AWAY · HOU
Joe Espada
D+ Lineup 2.8 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · ATH
Mark Kotsay
C- Lineup 2.6 R Bunts 1.1 R IBBs 1.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · HOU
5-4 W1 -2 run diff
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HOME · ATH
5-5 W2 -1 run diff
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Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Houston Astros
  • Manager lineup cost +0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.87 vs actual lineup 4.78
  • Player execution +5.22 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.78 projection by 5.22 (scored 10)
  • Game variance +5.13 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Meyers HR from the 7-hole

HOME · Oakland Athletics
  • Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.97 vs actual lineup 4.92
  • Player execution +7.08 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.92 projection by 7.08 (scored 12)
  • Game variance +7.03 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Muncy 2-for-5 from the 7-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 5.0 — actual was 10 – 12.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.