Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Yandy Díaz DH
- 2 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 3 Jake Fraley RF
- 4 Junior Caminero 3B
- 5 Cedric Mullins CF
- 6 Chandler Simpson LF
- 7 Ben Williamson SS
- 8 Hunter Feduccia C
- 9 Richie Palacios 2B
- 1 Austin Martin LF
- 2 Luke Keaschall 2B
- 3 Josh Bell 1B
- 4 Matt Wallner RF
- 5 Ryan Jeffers DH
- 6 Victor Caratini C
- 7 Royce Lewis 3B
- 8 Brooks Lee SS
- 9 James Outman CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 3-0 with TB listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.74 vs actual lineup 3.75
- Player execution +3.25 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.75 projection by 3.25 (scored 7)
- Game variance +3.26 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
- Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.09 vs actual lineup 4.06
- Player execution −3.06 R/G Players fell 3.06 short of the lineup's 4.06 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −3.09 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Martin 0-for-3 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 3.7 – 4.1 — actual was 7 – 1.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.