St. Louis Cardinals vs Detroit Tigers
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera DH
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Nolan Gorman 3B
- 5 Jordan Walker RF
- 6 Thomas Saggese SS
- 7 Nathan Church LF
- 8 Pedro Pagés C
- 9 Victor Scott II CF
- 1 Colt Keith 3B
- 2 Kevin McGonigle SS
- 3 Gleyber Torres 2B
- 4 Kerry Carpenter DH
- 5 Riley Greene LF
- 6 Dillon Dingler C
- 7 Zach McKinstry RF
- 8 Spencer Torkelson 1B
- 9 Parker Meadows CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| DET | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.81 vs actual lineup 4.82
- Player execution +1.18 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.82 projection by 1.18 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Gorman 0-for-4 batting 4th
- Manager lineup cost +0.11 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.95 vs actual lineup 4.83
- Player execution +6.17 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.83 projection by 6.17 (scored 11)
- Game variance +6.05 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
McKinstry HR from the 7-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 5.0 — actual was 6 – 11.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.