San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Fernando Tatis RF
- 2 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 3 Jackson Merrill CF
- 4 Manny Machado 3B
- 5 Ramón Laureano LF
- 6 Miguel Andujar DH
- 7 Gavin Sheets 1B
- 8 Jake Cronenworth 2B
- 9 Luis Campusano C
- 1 Roman Anthony DH
- 2 Trevor Story SS
- 3 Jarren Duran LF
- 4 Willson Contreras 1B
- 5 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 6 Caleb Durbin 3B
- 7 Marcelo Mayer 2B
- 8 Carlos Narváez C
- 9 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.95 vs actual lineup 4.00
- Player execution −2.00 R/G Players fell 2.00 short of the lineup's 4.00 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.95 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Jr. 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.80 vs actual lineup 2.73
- Player execution +2.28 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.73 projection by 2.28 (scored 5)
- Game variance +2.20 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Mayer HR from the 7-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.0 – 2.8 — actual was 2 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.