Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Alex Bregman 3B
- 3 Ian Happ LF
- 4 Carson Kelly C
- 5 Michael Busch 1B
- 6 Dansby Swanson SS
- 7 Matt Shaw RF
- 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 9 Miguel Amaya DH
- 1 Steven Kwan LF
- 2 Chase DeLauter DH
- 3 José Ramírez 3B
- 4 Kyle Manzardo 1B
- 5 Bo Naylor C
- 6 Angel Martínez RF
- 7 Daniel Schneemann CF
- 8 Gabriel Arias SS
- 9 Brayan Rocchio 2B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.18 vs actual lineup 3.15
- Player execution −2.15 R/G Players fell 2.15 short of the lineup's 3.15 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −2.18 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Happ 0-for-4 batting 3rd
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.32 vs actual lineup 4.30
- Player execution −0.30 R/G Players fell 0.30 short of the lineup's 4.30 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.32 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Arias HR from the 8-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 4.3 — actual was 1 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.