ARCHIVE April 3, 2026
April 3, 2026 · AL Cent

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians

April 3, 2026Progressive FieldCloudy 70°F · 10 mph, L To R
AWAY
Chicago Cubs
3-4
1
vs
HOME
Cleveland Guardians
5-3
4

Starting pitchers

AWAY · CHC
Colin Rea
Colin Rea
IP 3.1
HOME · CLE
Joey Cantillo
Joey Cantillo
IP 5.1

Lineups

AWAY · CHC
  1. 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
  2. 2 Alex Bregman 3B
  3. 3 Ian Happ LF
  4. 4 Carson Kelly C
  5. 5 Michael Busch 1B
  6. 6 Dansby Swanson SS
  7. 7 Matt Shaw RF
  8. 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
  9. 9 Miguel Amaya DH
HOME · CLE
  1. 1 Steven Kwan LF
  2. 2 Chase DeLauter DH
  3. 3 José Ramírez 3B
  4. 4 Kyle Manzardo 1B
  5. 5 Bo Naylor C
  6. 6 Angel Martínez RF
  7. 7 Daniel Schneemann CF
  8. 8 Gabriel Arias SS
  9. 9 Brayan Rocchio 2B

Box score

  123456789 R
CHC 001000000 1
CLE 000010300 4

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · CHC
Craig Counsell
C Lineup 1.7 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.3 R
HOME · CLE
Stephen Vogt
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · CHC
10-0 W10 +27 run diff
WWWWWWWWWW
HOME · CLE
6-4 W3 +7 run diff
WWWLLLWWWL

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Chicago Cubs
  • Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.18 vs actual lineup 3.15
  • Player execution −2.15 R/G Players fell 2.15 short of the lineup's 3.15 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −2.18 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Happ 0-for-4 batting 3rd

HOME · Cleveland Guardians
  • Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.32 vs actual lineup 4.30
  • Player execution −0.30 R/G Players fell 0.30 short of the lineup's 4.30 projection (scored 4)
  • Game variance −0.32 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Arias HR from the 8-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 4.3 — actual was 1 – 4.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.