ARCHIVE April 2, 2026
April 2, 2026 · AL Cent

Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals

April 2, 2026Kauffman StadiumPartly Cloudy 72°F · 14 mph, R To L
AWAY
Minnesota Twins
2-4
5
vs
HOME
Kansas City Royals
3-3
1

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIN
Taj Bradley
Taj Bradley
IP 6
HOME · KC
Cole Ragans
Cole Ragans
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · MIN
  1. 1 Austin Martin LF
  2. 2 Byron Buxton CF
  3. 3 Luke Keaschall 2B
  4. 4 Matt Wallner RF
  5. 5 Victor Caratini C
  6. 6 Kody Clemens 1B
  7. 7 Josh Bell DH
  8. 8 Royce Lewis 3B
  9. 9 Tristan Gray SS
HOME · KC
  1. 1 Maikel Garcia 3B
  2. 2 Bobby Witt Jr. SS
  3. 3 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B
  4. 4 Salvador Perez C
  5. 5 Jac Caglianone DH
  6. 6 Jonathan India 2B
  7. 7 Isaac Collins LF
  8. 8 Lane Thomas RF
  9. 9 Kyle Isbel CF

Box score

  123456789 R
MIN 010000013 5
KC 000000010 1

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIN
Derek Shelton
B Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.5 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · KC
Matt Quatraro
C Lineup 1.9 R Bunts 1.1 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIN
3-7 L3 -21 run diff
LLLWWLLWLL
HOME · KC
6-4 W1 +1 run diff
WLLWWWWWLL

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Minnesota Twins
  • Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.37 vs actual lineup 4.33
  • Player execution +0.67 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.33 projection by 0.67 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +0.63 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Bell HR from the 7-hole

HOME · Kansas City Royals
  • Manager lineup cost −0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.08 vs actual lineup 3.15
  • Player execution −2.15 R/G Players fell 2.15 short of the lineup's 3.15 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −2.08 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.4 – 3.1 — actual was 5 – 1.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.