New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Trent Grisham CF
- 2 Aaron Judge RF
- 3 Cody Bellinger LF
- 4 Ben Rice DH
- 5 Paul Goldschmidt 1B
- 6 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
- 7 Amed Rosario 3B
- 8 Austin Wells C
- 9 José Caballero SS
- 1 Brendan Donovan 3B
- 2 Cal Raleigh C
- 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
- 4 Josh Naylor 1B
- 5 Randy Arozarena LF
- 6 Luke Raley RF
- 7 Dominic Canzone DH
- 8 Cole Young 2B
- 9 Leo Rivas SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.33 vs actual lineup 3.38
- Player execution +1.62 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.38 projection by 1.62 (scored 5)
- Game variance +1.67 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Grisham 0-for-3 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.52 vs actual lineup 2.48
- Player execution +0.52 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.48 projection by 0.52 (scored 3)
- Game variance +0.48 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Rodríguez 0-for-4 batting 3rd
Optimal lineups projected 3.3 – 2.5 — actual was 5 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.