Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jarren Duran LF
- 2 Trevor Story SS
- 3 Masataka Yoshida DH
- 4 Willson Contreras 1B
- 5 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 6 Caleb Durbin 3B
- 7 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
- 8 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B
- 9 Connor Wong C
- 1 Jose Altuve 2B
- 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
- 3 Isaac Paredes 3B
- 4 Carlos Correa SS
- 5 Christian Walker 1B
- 6 Cam Smith RF
- 7 Jake Meyers CF
- 8 Brice Matthews LF
- 9 Christian Vázquez C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| HOU | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / D+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with BOS listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.86 vs actual lineup 4.78
- Player execution −0.78 R/G Players fell 0.78 short of the lineup's 4.78 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.86 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Anthony HR from the 8-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.82 vs actual lineup 4.76
- Player execution +1.24 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.76 projection by 1.24 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.18 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Vázquez HR from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 4.8 — actual was 4 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.