San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Willy Adames SS
- 2 Rafael Devers DH
- 3 Heliot Ramos LF
- 4 Luis Arraez 2B
- 5 Matt Chapman 3B
- 6 Jung Hoo Lee RF
- 7 Harrison Bader CF
- 8 Patrick Bailey C
- 9 Casey Schmitt 1B
- 1 Fernando Tatis Jr. RF
- 2 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 3 Jackson Merrill CF
- 4 Manny Machado 3B
- 5 Ramón Laureano DH
- 6 Jake Cronenworth 2B
- 7 Gavin Sheets 1B
- 8 Freddy Fermin C
- 9 Bryce Johnson LF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| SD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with SF listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.05 vs actual lineup 4.07
- Player execution −3.07 R/G Players fell 3.07 short of the lineup's 4.07 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −3.05 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Adames 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.70 vs actual lineup 4.74
- Player execution +2.26 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.74 projection by 2.26 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.30 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Bogaerts 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 4.0 – 4.7 — actual was 1 – 7.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.