ARCHIVE March 31, 2026
March 31, 2026 · AL West

New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners

March 31, 2026T-Mobile ParkPartly Cloudy 53°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
New York Yankees
4-1
5
vs
HOME
Seattle Mariners
3-3
0

Starting pitchers

AWAY · NYY
Max Fried
Max Fried
IP 7
HOME · SEA
Logan Gilbert
Logan Gilbert
IP 5.1

Lineups

AWAY · NYY
  1. 1 Trent Grisham CF
  2. 2 Aaron Judge RF
  3. 3 Cody Bellinger LF
  4. 4 Ben Rice 1B
  5. 5 Giancarlo Stanton DH
  6. 6 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
  7. 7 J.C. Escarra C
  8. 8 José Caballero SS
  9. 9 Ryan McMahon 3B
HOME · SEA
  1. 1 Rob Refsnyder DH
  2. 2 Cal Raleigh C
  3. 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
  4. 4 Josh Naylor 1B
  5. 5 Randy Arozarena LF
  6. 6 Brendan Donovan 3B
  7. 7 Victor Robles RF
  8. 8 Leo Rivas SS
  9. 9 Cole Young 2B

Box score

  123456789 R
NYY 200003000 5
SEA 000000000 0

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · NYY
Aaron Boone
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.0 R IBBs 1.1 R
HOME · SEA
Dan Wilson
B- Lineup 1.3 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · NYY
7-3 L1 +26 run diff
LWLWWWWWLW
HOME · SEA
5-5 W2 +2 run diff
WWLWLLLWWL

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · New York Yankees
  • Manager lineup cost −0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.23 vs actual lineup 4.33
  • Player execution +0.67 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.33 projection by 0.67 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +0.77 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Judge 0-for-4 batting 2nd

HOME · Seattle Mariners
  • Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.85 vs actual lineup 2.90
  • Player execution −2.90 R/G Players fell 2.90 short of the lineup's 2.90 projection (scored 0)
  • Game variance −2.85 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Refsnyder 0-for-4 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.2 – 2.9 — actual was 5 – 0.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.