New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Trent Grisham CF
- 2 Aaron Judge RF
- 3 Cody Bellinger LF
- 4 Ben Rice 1B
- 5 Giancarlo Stanton DH
- 6 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
- 7 J.C. Escarra C
- 8 José Caballero SS
- 9 Ryan McMahon 3B
- 1 Rob Refsnyder DH
- 2 Cal Raleigh C
- 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
- 4 Josh Naylor 1B
- 5 Randy Arozarena LF
- 6 Brendan Donovan 3B
- 7 Victor Robles RF
- 8 Leo Rivas SS
- 9 Cole Young 2B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.23 vs actual lineup 4.33
- Player execution +0.67 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.33 projection by 0.67 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.77 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Judge 0-for-4 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.85 vs actual lineup 2.90
- Player execution −2.90 R/G Players fell 2.90 short of the lineup's 2.90 projection (scored 0)
- Game variance −2.85 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Refsnyder 0-for-4 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.2 – 2.9 — actual was 5 – 0.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.