ARCHIVE March 31, 2026
March 31, 2026 · NL West

Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks

March 31, 2026Chase FieldPartly Cloudy 86°F · 1 mph, In From RF
AWAY
Detroit Tigers
2-3
5
vs

Starting pitchers

AWAY · DET
Casey Mize
Casey Mize
IP 6
HOME · AZ
Brandon Pfaadt
Brandon Pfaadt
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · DET
  1. 1 Colt Keith 3B
  2. 2 Kevin McGonigle SS
  3. 3 Gleyber Torres 2B
  4. 4 Riley Greene LF
  5. 5 Kerry Carpenter DH
  6. 6 Spencer Torkelson 1B
  7. 7 Zach McKinstry RF
  8. 8 Parker Meadows CF
  9. 9 Jake Rogers C
HOME · AZ
  1. 1 Ketel Marte 2B
  2. 2 Corbin Carroll RF
  3. 3 Geraldo Perdomo SS
  4. 4 Gabriel Moreno DH
  5. 5 Alek Thomas CF
  6. 6 Jose Fernandez 3B
  7. 7 Carlos Santana 1B
  8. 8 James McCann C
  9. 9 Jordan Lawlar LF

Box score

  123456789 R
DET 005000000 5
AZ 000100060 7

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C- / C- entering this matchup.

AWAY · DET
A.J. Hinch
C- Lineup 2.7 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.1 R
HOME · AZ
Torey Lovullo
C- Lineup 2.0 R Bunts 2.1 R IBBs 0.6 R

Recent form

AWAY · DET
3-7 L4 -5 run diff
LLLLWWLWLL
HOME · AZ
3-7 L2 -15 run diff
LLWLLLLWLW

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Detroit Tigers
  • Manager lineup cost +0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.89 vs actual lineup 4.79
  • Player execution +0.21 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.79 projection by 0.21 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +0.11 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Torres 0-for-3 batting 3rd

HOME · Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.17 vs actual lineup 3.22
  • Player execution +3.78 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.22 projection by 3.78 (scored 7)
  • Game variance +3.83 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Marte 0-for-3 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 3.2 — actual was 5 – 7.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.