ARCHIVE March 31, 2026
March 31, 2026 · AL East

Colorado Rockies vs Toronto Blue Jays

March 31, 2026Rogers CentreRoof Closed 68°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Colorado Rockies
1-4
1
vs
HOME
Toronto Blue Jays
4-1
5

Starting pitchers

AWAY · COL
Ryan Feltner
Ryan Feltner
IP 3
HOME · TOR
Max Scherzer
Max Scherzer
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · COL
  1. 1 Jake McCarthy LF
  2. 2 Hunter Goodman C
  3. 3 Willi Castro 1B
  4. 4 Ezequiel Tovar SS
  5. 5 TJ Rumfield DH
  6. 6 Troy Johnston RF
  7. 7 Brenton Doyle CF
  8. 8 Kyle Karros 3B
  9. 9 Ryan Ritter 2B
HOME · TOR
  1. 1 George Springer DH
  2. 2 Jesús Sánchez LF
  3. 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
  4. 4 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
  5. 5 Nathan Lukes RF
  6. 6 Ernie Clement 2B
  7. 7 Daulton Varsho CF
  8. 8 Tyler Heineman C
  9. 9 Andrés Giménez SS

Box score

  123456789 R
COL 000001000 1
TOR 000020300 5

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C / B entering this matchup.

AWAY · COL
Warren Schaeffer
C Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.9 R IBBs 1.9 R
HOME · TOR
John Schneider
B Lineup 0.3 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.3 R

Recent form

AWAY · COL
3-6 W2 -7 run diff
WWL?LLLLLW
HOME · TOR
5-5 W1 +8 run diff
WLLLLWWLWW

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Colorado Rockies
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.73 vs actual lineup 4.72
  • Player execution −3.72 R/G Players fell 3.72 short of the lineup's 4.72 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −3.73 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Castro 0-for-4 batting 3rd

HOME · Toronto Blue Jays
  • Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.63 vs actual lineup 4.64
  • Player execution +0.36 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.64 projection by 0.36 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +0.37 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Heineman 2-for-4 from the 8-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 4.6 — actual was 1 – 5.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.