Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Roman Anthony LF
- 2 Trevor Story SS
- 3 Masataka Yoshida DH
- 4 Willson Contreras 1B
- 5 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 6 Andruw Monasterio 3B
- 7 Marcelo Mayer 2B
- 8 Connor Wong C
- 9 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
- 1 Jeremy Peña SS
- 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
- 3 Jose Altuve 2B
- 4 Carlos Correa 3B
- 5 Christian Walker 1B
- 6 Joey Loperfido LF
- 7 Cam Smith RF
- 8 Yainer Diaz C
- 9 Jake Meyers CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| HOU | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / D+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with BOS listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.10 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.41 vs actual lineup 2.31
- Player execution −0.31 R/G Players fell 0.31 short of the lineup's 2.31 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −0.41 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Rafaela HR from the 9-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.28 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.84 vs actual lineup 4.56
- Player execution +4.44 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.56 projection by 4.44 (scored 9)
- Game variance +4.16 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Smith HR from the 7-hole
Optimal lineups projected 2.4 – 4.8 — actual was 2 – 9.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.