ARCHIVE March 31, 2026
March 31, 2026 · AL East

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles

March 31, 2026Oriole Park at Camden YardsPartly Cloudy 82°F · 17 mph, Out To CF
AWAY
Texas Rangers
4-1
8
vs
HOME
Baltimore Orioles
2-3
5

Starting pitchers

AWAY · TEX
Jacob deGrom
Jacob deGrom
IP 4.2
HOME · BAL
Zach Eflin
Zach Eflin
IP 3.2

Lineups

AWAY · TEX
  1. 1 Brandon Nimmo RF
  2. 2 Wyatt Langford LF
  3. 3 Corey Seager SS
  4. 4 Jake Burger 1B
  5. 5 Joc Pederson DH
  6. 6 Josh Smith 2B
  7. 7 Danny Jansen C
  8. 8 Evan Carter CF
  9. 9 Ezequiel Duran 3B
HOME · BAL
  1. 1 Taylor Ward LF
  2. 2 Gunnar Henderson SS
  3. 3 Pete Alonso 1B
  4. 4 Adley Rutschman C
  5. 5 Samuel Basallo DH
  6. 6 Tyler O'Neill RF
  7. 7 Colton Cowser CF
  8. 8 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
  9. 9 Blaze Alexander 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
TEX 001021301 8
BAL 000120002 5

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · TEX
Skip Schumaker
B- Lineup 1.0 R Bunts 0.3 R IBBs 0.9 R
HOME · BAL
Craig Albernaz
C+ Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.3 R IBBs 1.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · TEX
3-7 L2 -20 run diff
LLWLLLWWLL
HOME · BAL
3-7 L2 -25 run diff
LLWWLLLLWL

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Texas Rangers
  • Manager lineup cost −0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.77 vs actual lineup 2.80
  • Player execution +5.20 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.80 projection by 5.20 (scored 8)
  • Game variance +5.23 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Jansen HR from the 7-hole

HOME · Baltimore Orioles
  • Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.87 vs actual lineup 2.87
  • Player execution +2.13 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.87 projection by 2.13 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +2.13 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Rutschman 0-for-3 batting 4th

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 2.8 – 2.9 — actual was 8 – 5.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.