ARCHIVE March 30, 2026
March 30, 2026 · NL West

Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks

March 30, 2026Chase FieldCloudy 88°F · 6 mph, Varies
AWAY
Detroit Tigers
2-2
6
vs

Starting pitchers

AWAY · DET
Justin Verlander
Justin Verlander
IP 3.2
HOME · AZ
Michael Soroka
Michael Soroka
IP 5

Lineups

AWAY · DET
  1. 1 Kerry Carpenter RF
  2. 2 Gleyber Torres 2B
  3. 3 Colt Keith DH
  4. 4 Riley Greene LF
  5. 5 Spencer Torkelson 1B
  6. 6 Kevin McGonigle 3B
  7. 7 Dillon Dingler C
  8. 8 Parker Meadows CF
  9. 9 Javier Báez SS
HOME · AZ
  1. 1 Ketel Marte 2B
  2. 2 Corbin Carroll RF
  3. 3 Geraldo Perdomo SS
  4. 4 Gabriel Moreno C
  5. 5 Nolan Arenado 3B
  6. 6 Alek Thomas CF
  7. 7 Carlos Santana 1B
  8. 8 Ildemaro Vargas DH
  9. 9 Jordan Lawlar LF

Box score

  123456789 R
DET 000000600 6
AZ 230030100 9

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C- / C- entering this matchup.

AWAY · DET
A.J. Hinch
C- Lineup 2.7 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.1 R
HOME · AZ
Torey Lovullo
C- Lineup 2.0 R Bunts 2.1 R IBBs 0.6 R

Recent form

AWAY · DET
3-7 L4 -5 run diff
LLLLWWLWLL
HOME · AZ
3-7 L2 -15 run diff
LLWLLLLWLW

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Detroit Tigers
  • Manager lineup cost +0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.25 vs actual lineup 3.17
  • Player execution +2.83 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.17 projection by 2.83 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +2.75 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

HOME · Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.84 vs actual lineup 4.78
  • Player execution +4.22 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.78 projection by 4.22 (scored 9)
  • Game variance +4.16 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Vargas HR from the 8-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.3 – 4.8 — actual was 6 – 9.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.