ARCHIVE March 29, 2026
March 29, 2026 · NL Cent

Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals

March 29, 2026Busch StadiumPartly Cloudy 65°F · 11 mph, Out To LF
AWAY
Tampa Bay Rays
1-2
11
vs
HOME
St. Louis Cardinals
2-1
7

Starting pitchers

AWAY · TB
Steven Matz
Steven Matz
IP 5
HOME · STL
Dustin May
Dustin May
IP 4

Lineups

AWAY · TB
  1. 1 Yandy Díaz DH
  2. 2 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  3. 3 Cedric Mullins CF
  4. 4 Junior Caminero 3B
  5. 5 Chandler Simpson LF
  6. 6 Jonny DeLuca RF
  7. 7 Richie Palacios 2B
  8. 8 Carson Williams SS
  9. 9 Hunter Feduccia C
HOME · STL
  1. 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
  2. 2 Iván Herrera DH
  3. 3 Alec Burleson 1B
  4. 4 Masyn Winn SS
  5. 5 Thomas Saggese LF
  6. 6 Ramón Urías 3B
  7. 7 Jordan Walker RF
  8. 8 Pedro Pagés C
  9. 9 Victor Scott II CF

Box score

  123456789 R
TB 030300032 11
STL 001300030 7

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · TB
Kevin Cash
B- Lineup 0.9 R Bunts 2.4 R IBBs 2.1 R
HOME · STL
Oliver Marmol
B- Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.3 R

Recent form

AWAY · TB
8-2 L1 +17 run diff
LWWWWWWWLW
HOME · STL
7-2 W1 +13 run diff
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Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Tampa Bay Rays
  • Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.77 vs actual lineup 4.74
  • Player execution +6.26 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.74 projection by 6.26 (scored 11)
  • Game variance +6.23 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Caminero 0-for-5 batting 4th

HOME · St. Louis Cardinals
  • Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.02 vs actual lineup 4.07
  • Player execution +2.93 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.07 projection by 2.93 (scored 7)
  • Game variance +2.98 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Walker HR from the 7-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 4.0 — actual was 11 – 7.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.