Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Yandy Díaz DH
- 2 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 3 Cedric Mullins CF
- 4 Junior Caminero 3B
- 5 Chandler Simpson LF
- 6 Jonny DeLuca RF
- 7 Richie Palacios 2B
- 8 Carson Williams SS
- 9 Hunter Feduccia C
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera DH
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Masyn Winn SS
- 5 Thomas Saggese LF
- 6 Ramón Urías 3B
- 7 Jordan Walker RF
- 8 Pedro Pagés C
- 9 Victor Scott II CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.77 vs actual lineup 4.74
- Player execution +6.26 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.74 projection by 6.26 (scored 11)
- Game variance +6.23 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Caminero 0-for-5 batting 4th
- Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.02 vs actual lineup 4.07
- Player execution +2.93 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.07 projection by 2.93 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.98 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Walker HR from the 7-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 4.0 — actual was 11 – 7.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.