Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Zach Neto SS
- 2 Mike Trout DH
- 3 Nolan Schanuel 1B
- 4 Jorge Soler RF
- 5 Yoán Moncada 3B
- 6 Jo Adell CF
- 7 Josh Lowe LF
- 8 Travis d'Arnaud C
- 9 Adam Frazier 2B
- 1 Jeremy Peña SS
- 2 Yordan Alvarez LF
- 3 Isaac Paredes 2B
- 4 Jose Altuve DH
- 5 Carlos Correa 3B
- 6 Joey Loperfido CF
- 7 Christian Walker 1B
- 8 Cam Smith RF
- 9 Christian Vázquez C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| HOU | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C / D+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.12 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.75 vs actual lineup 4.63
- Player execution +2.37 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.63 projection by 2.37 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.25 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
- Manager lineup cost +0.31 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.57 vs actual lineup 3.26
- Player execution +5.74 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.26 projection by 5.74 (scored 9)
- Game variance +5.43 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Peña 0-for-5 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 3.6 — actual was 7 – 9.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.