ARCHIVE March 28, 2026
March 28, 2026 · AL East

Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles

March 28, 2026Oriole Park at Camden YardsSunny 46°F · 9 mph, In From LF
AWAY
Minnesota Twins
1-1
4
vs
HOME
Baltimore Orioles
1-1
1

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIN
Taj Bradley
Taj Bradley
IP 4.1
HOME · BAL
Kyle Bradish
Kyle Bradish
IP 4.2

Lineups

AWAY · MIN
  1. 1 Kody Clemens 1B
  2. 2 Byron Buxton CF
  3. 3 Luke Keaschall 2B
  4. 4 Matt Wallner RF
  5. 5 Josh Bell DH
  6. 6 Ryan Jeffers C
  7. 7 Trevor Larnach LF
  8. 8 Royce Lewis 3B
  9. 9 Brooks Lee SS
HOME · BAL
  1. 1 Taylor Ward LF
  2. 2 Gunnar Henderson SS
  3. 3 Pete Alonso 1B
  4. 4 Adley Rutschman C
  5. 5 Samuel Basallo DH
  6. 6 Dylan Beavers RF
  7. 7 Coby Mayo 3B
  8. 8 Colton Cowser CF
  9. 9 Jeremiah Jackson 2B

Box score

  123456789 R
MIN 000120100 4
BAL 010000000 1

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIN
Derek Shelton
B Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.5 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · BAL
Craig Albernaz
C+ Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.3 R IBBs 1.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIN
3-7 L3 -21 run diff
LLLWWLLWLL
HOME · BAL
3-7 L2 -25 run diff
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Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Minnesota Twins
  • Manager lineup cost −0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.02 vs actual lineup 4.08
  • Player execution −0.08 R/G Players fell 0.08 short of the lineup's 4.08 projection (scored 4)
  • Game variance −0.02 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lewis HR from the 8-hole

HOME · Baltimore Orioles
  • Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.28 vs actual lineup 3.30
  • Player execution −2.30 R/G Players fell 2.30 short of the lineup's 3.30 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −2.28 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Ward 0-for-3 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.0 – 3.3 — actual was 4 – 1.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.