ARCHIVE March 28, 2026
March 28, 2026 · NL West

Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres

March 28, 2026Petco ParkPartly Cloudy 71°F · 11 mph, L To R
AWAY
Detroit Tigers
2-1
0
vs
HOME
San Diego Padres
1-2
3

Starting pitchers

AWAY · DET
Jack Flaherty
Jack Flaherty
IP 4.1
HOME · SD
Randy Vásquez
Randy Vásquez
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · DET
  1. 1 Kerry Carpenter DH
  2. 2 Gleyber Torres 2B
  3. 3 Colt Keith 3B
  4. 4 Riley Greene LF
  5. 5 Spencer Torkelson 1B
  6. 6 Kevin McGonigle SS
  7. 7 Matt Vierling CF
  8. 8 Zach McKinstry RF
  9. 9 Jake Rogers C
HOME · SD
  1. 1 Jake Cronenworth 2B
  2. 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. RF
  3. 3 Manny Machado 3B
  4. 4 Jackson Merrill CF
  5. 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
  6. 6 Gavin Sheets 1B
  7. 7 Ramón Laureano LF
  8. 8 Nick Castellanos DH
  9. 9 Freddy Fermin C

Box score

  123456789 R
DET 000000000 0
SD 002010000 3

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C- / B entering this matchup.

AWAY · DET
A.J. Hinch
C- Lineup 2.7 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.1 R
HOME · SD
Craig Stammen
B Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.2 R

Recent form

AWAY · DET
3-7 L4 -5 run diff
LLLLWWLWLL
HOME · SD
4-6 L1 -6 run diff
LWWLWLLLLW

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Detroit Tigers
  • Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.25 vs actual lineup 3.18
  • Player execution −3.18 R/G Players fell 3.18 short of the lineup's 3.18 projection (scored 0)
  • Game variance −3.25 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Torres 0-for-3 batting 2nd

HOME · San Diego Padres
  • Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.73 vs actual lineup 4.67
  • Player execution −1.67 R/G Players fell 1.67 short of the lineup's 4.67 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −1.73 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Merrill 0-for-4 batting 4th

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.3 – 4.7 — actual was 0 – 3.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.