ARCHIVE March 28, 2026
March 28, 2026 · NL East

Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins

March 28, 2026loanDepot parkRoof Closed 72°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Colorado Rockies
0-2
3
vs
HOME
Miami Marlins
2-0
4

Starting pitchers

AWAY · COL
Michael Lorenzen
Michael Lorenzen
IP 4.1
HOME · MIA
Eury Pérez
Eury Pérez
IP 7

Lineups

AWAY · COL
  1. 1 Jake McCarthy LF
  2. 2 Hunter Goodman C
  3. 3 Willi Castro 2B
  4. 4 Ezequiel Tovar SS
  5. 5 TJ Rumfield 1B
  6. 6 Troy Johnston RF
  7. 7 Brenton Doyle CF
  8. 8 Kyle Karros 3B
  9. 9 Edouard Julien DH
HOME · MIA
  1. 1 Jakob Marsee CF
  2. 2 Xavier Edwards 2B
  3. 3 Agustín Ramírez DH
  4. 4 Liam Hicks C
  5. 5 Otto Lopez SS
  6. 6 Owen Caissie RF
  7. 7 Griffin Conine LF
  8. 8 Connor Norby 1B
  9. 9 Graham Pauley 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
COL 010200000 3
MIA 001020010 4

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · COL
Warren Schaeffer
C Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.9 R IBBs 1.9 R
HOME · MIA
Clayton McCullough
C+ Lineup 1.4 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.6 R

Recent form

AWAY · COL
3-6 W2 -7 run diff
WWL?LLLLLW
HOME · MIA
4-6 L1 -6 run diff
LWLLLLWLWW

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Colorado Rockies
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.28 vs actual lineup 4.27
  • Player execution −1.27 R/G Players fell 1.27 short of the lineup's 4.27 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −1.28 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

McCarthy 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Miami Marlins
  • Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.86 vs actual lineup 4.84
  • Player execution −0.84 R/G Players fell 0.84 short of the lineup's 4.84 projection (scored 4)
  • Game variance −0.86 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Marsee 0-for-4 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.3 – 4.9 — actual was 3 – 4.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.