ARCHIVE March 28, 2026
March 28, 2026 · AL West

Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners

March 28, 2026T-Mobile ParkPartly Cloudy 53°F · 6 mph, In From LF
AWAY
Cleveland Guardians
2-1
6
vs
HOME
Seattle Mariners
1-2
5

Starting pitchers

AWAY · CLE
Joey Cantillo
Joey Cantillo
IP 3.2
HOME · SEA
Bryan Woo
Bryan Woo
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · CLE
  1. 1 Steven Kwan CF
  2. 2 Chase DeLauter DH
  3. 3 José Ramírez 3B
  4. 4 Kyle Manzardo 1B
  5. 5 David Fry C
  6. 6 Daniel Schneemann 2B
  7. 7 Angel Martínez LF
  8. 8 CJ Kayfus RF
  9. 9 Brayan Rocchio SS
HOME · SEA
  1. 1 Rob Refsnyder DH
  2. 2 Cal Raleigh C
  3. 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
  4. 4 Josh Naylor 1B
  5. 5 Randy Arozarena LF
  6. 6 Brendan Donovan 3B
  7. 7 Victor Robles RF
  8. 8 Leo Rivas SS
  9. 9 Cole Young 2B

Box score

  12345678910 R
CLE 0000021003 6
SEA 0101000012 5

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · CLE
Stephen Vogt
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · SEA
Dan Wilson
B- Lineup 1.3 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · CLE
6-4 W3 +7 run diff
WWWLLLWWWL
HOME · SEA
5-5 W2 +2 run diff
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Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Cleveland Guardians
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.73 vs actual lineup 3.73
  • Player execution +2.27 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.73 projection by 2.27 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +2.27 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

HOME · Seattle Mariners
  • Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.24 vs actual lineup 3.18
  • Player execution +1.82 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.18 projection by 1.82 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +1.76 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Raley HR from the 7-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.7 – 3.2 — actual was 6 – 5.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.