ARCHIVE March 27, 2026
March 27, 2026 · NL East

Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins

March 27, 2026loanDepot parkPartly Cloudy 79°F · 2 mph, In From LF
AWAY
Colorado Rockies
0-1
1
vs
HOME
Miami Marlins
1-0
2

Starting pitchers

AWAY · COL
Kyle Freeland
Kyle Freeland
IP 4.1
HOME · MIA
Sandy Alcantara
Sandy Alcantara
IP 7

Lineups

AWAY · COL
  1. 1 Jake McCarthy LF
  2. 2 Hunter Goodman C
  3. 3 Willi Castro 2B
  4. 4 Ezequiel Tovar SS
  5. 5 TJ Rumfield 1B
  6. 6 Jordan Beck RF
  7. 7 Brenton Doyle CF
  8. 8 Edouard Julien DH
  9. 9 Kyle Karros 3B
HOME · MIA
  1. 1 Austin Slater RF
  2. 2 Agustín Ramírez C
  3. 3 Jakob Marsee CF
  4. 4 Otto Lopez SS
  5. 5 Connor Norby 1B
  6. 6 Heriberto Hernández LF
  7. 7 Xavier Edwards 2B
  8. 8 Owen Caissie DH
  9. 9 Javier Sanoja 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
COL 000100000 1
MIA 020000000 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · COL
Warren Schaeffer
C Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.9 R IBBs 1.9 R
HOME · MIA
Clayton McCullough
C+ Lineup 1.4 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.6 R

Recent form

AWAY · COL
3-6 W2 -7 run diff
WWL?LLLLLW
HOME · MIA
4-6 L1 -6 run diff
LWLLLLWLWW

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Colorado Rockies
  • Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.42 vs actual lineup 3.36
  • Player execution −2.36 R/G Players fell 2.36 short of the lineup's 3.36 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −2.42 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Castro 0-for-4 batting 3rd

HOME · Miami Marlins
  • Manager lineup cost −0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.50 vs actual lineup 3.52
  • Player execution −1.52 R/G Players fell 1.52 short of the lineup's 3.52 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.50 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Ramírez 0-for-3 batting 2nd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.4 – 3.5 — actual was 1 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.