ARCHIVE March 26, 2026
March 26, 2026 · NL West

Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres

March 26, 2026Petco ParkSunny 74°F · 7 mph, L To R
AWAY
Detroit Tigers
1-0
8
vs
HOME
San Diego Padres
0-1
2

Starting pitchers

AWAY · DET
Tarik Skubal
Tarik Skubal
IP 6
HOME · SD
Nick Pivetta
Nick Pivetta
IP 3

Lineups

AWAY · DET
  1. 1 Kerry Carpenter RF
  2. 2 Gleyber Torres 2B
  3. 3 Colt Keith DH
  4. 4 Riley Greene LF
  5. 5 Spencer Torkelson 1B
  6. 6 Kevin McGonigle 3B
  7. 7 Dillon Dingler C
  8. 8 Parker Meadows CF
  9. 9 Javier Báez SS
HOME · SD
  1. 1 Fernando Tatis RF
  2. 2 Xander Bogaerts SS
  3. 3 Manny Machado 3B
  4. 4 Jackson Merrill CF
  5. 5 Miguel Andujar DH
  6. 6 Gavin Sheets 1B
  7. 7 Ramón Laureano LF
  8. 8 Freddy Fermin C
  9. 9 Jake Cronenworth 2B

Box score

  123456789 R
DET 402020000 8
SD 000001100 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C- / B entering this matchup.

AWAY · DET
A.J. Hinch
C- Lineup 2.7 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.1 R
HOME · SD
Craig Stammen
B Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.2 R

Recent form

AWAY · DET
3-7 L4 -5 run diff
LLLLWWLWLL
HOME · SD
4-6 L1 -6 run diff
LWWLWLLLLW

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Detroit Tigers
  • Manager lineup cost +0.14 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.15 vs actual lineup 4.01
  • Player execution +3.99 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.01 projection by 3.99 (scored 8)
  • Game variance +3.85 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Dingler HR from the 7-hole

HOME · San Diego Padres
  • Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.07 vs actual lineup 3.10
  • Player execution −1.10 R/G Players fell 1.10 short of the lineup's 3.10 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.07 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Laureano HR from the 7-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.2 – 3.1 — actual was 8 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.