Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Oneil Cruz CF
- 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds LF
- 4 Marcell Ozuna DH
- 5 Ryan O'Hearn RF
- 6 Jared Triolo SS
- 7 Spencer Horwitz 1B
- 8 Nick Gonzales 3B
- 9 Henry Davis C
- 1 Francisco Lindor SS
- 2 Juan Soto LF
- 3 Bo Bichette 3B
- 4 Jorge Polanco 1B
- 5 Luis Robert CF
- 6 Brett Baty DH
- 7 Marcus Semien 2B
- 8 Carson Benge RF
- 9 Francisco Alvarez C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| NYM | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / D+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.14 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.87 vs actual lineup 3.73
- Player execution +3.27 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.73 projection by 3.27 (scored 7)
- Game variance +3.13 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Ozuna 0-for-4 batting 4th
- Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.53 vs actual lineup 2.57
- Player execution +8.43 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.57 projection by 8.43 (scored 11)
- Game variance +8.47 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Benge HR from the 8-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.9 – 2.5 — actual was 7 – 11.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.