PLAYER · 2026-07-30
Esmerlyn Valdez
Pirates · RF — every model-projected prop for tonight, ranked by calibrated hit probability.
| Market | Hit % | Edge | Conf | Books | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model Pick | Hits 0.5 | 66% | +6.5pp | high | Underdog 0.5 | |
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Recent form
Valdez .213 over last 14 games (.277 season — slumping)
Salary
DK $4,500
Play on DraftKings DFS →
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| Total Bases 1.5 | 52% | +10.6pp | medium | Underdog 1.5 | ||
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Manager context
No notable signal for this matchup beyond baseline projection.
Salary
DK $4,500
Play on DraftKings DFS →
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| HR 0.5 | 16% | -10.7pp | low | Underdog 0.5 | ||
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Recent form
Valdez 4 HR in last 14 games (6.9% PA vs 8.9% season — pop quiet)
Salary
DK $4,500
Play on DraftKings DFS →
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