PLAYER · 2026-07-04

Brendan Beck

Yankees · SP — every model-projected prop for tonight, ranked by calibrated hit probability.

		Market	Hit %	Edge	Conf	Books
	Model Pick	Strikeouts 2.5	70%	+0.5pp	high	PrizePicks 2.5
Quality flags Pitcher small sample. Limited 2026 IP — projection weighted heavily on Bayesian shrinkage toward league mean. K rate may not reflect true talent yet.
	Model Pick	Strikeouts 3.5	69%	+6.3pp	high	PrizePicks 3.5 Underdog 3.5
Quality flags Pitcher small sample. Limited 2026 IP — projection weighted heavily on Bayesian shrinkage toward league mean. K rate may not reflect true talent yet.
		Strikeouts 4.5	53%	+22.7pp	medium	PrizePicks 4.5
Quality flags Pitcher small sample. Limited 2026 IP — projection weighted heavily on Bayesian shrinkage toward league mean. K rate may not reflect true talent yet.
		Strikeouts 5.5	32%	+2.5pp	low	PrizePicks 5.5
Quality flags Pitcher small sample. Limited 2026 IP — projection weighted heavily on Bayesian shrinkage toward league mean. K rate may not reflect true talent yet.
		Strikeouts 6.5	22%	-8.3pp	low	PrizePicks 6.5
Quality flags Pitcher small sample. Limited 2026 IP — projection weighted heavily on Bayesian shrinkage toward league mean. K rate may not reflect true talent yet.
		Strikeouts 7.5	13%	-17.5pp	low	PrizePicks 7.5
Quality flags Pitcher small sample. Limited 2026 IP — projection weighted heavily on Bayesian shrinkage toward league mean. K rate may not reflect true talent yet.