PLAYER · 2026-09-16

Jared Simpson

Nationals · SP — every model-projected prop for tonight, ranked by calibrated hit probability.

		Market	Hit %	Edge	Conf	Books
	Limited data	Strikeouts 1.5	26%	-32.6pp	low	Underdog 1.5
Quality flags Pitcher small sample. Limited 2026 IP — projection weighted heavily on Bayesian shrinkage toward league mean. K rate may not reflect true talent yet. Short-outing role. Reliever / opener / swingman — averages under 3 IP per appearance. Model treats them as starters unless gated; predictions historically inflate ~3-5× the realistic K count.