PLAYER · 2026-09-14

Graham Pauley

Marlins · 3B — every model-projected prop for tonight, ranked by calibrated hit probability.

		Market	Hit %	Edge	Conf	Books
	Limited data	Hits 0.5	62%	+12.5pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Pauley .324 over last 14 games (.214 season — hot) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	52%	+2.2pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Pauley .339 SLG over last 14 (.389 season — flattening) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Limited data	HR 0.5	13%	+4.4pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Pauley 3 HR in last 14 games (8.1% PA vs 2.9% season — pop spiking) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.