PLAYER · 2026-09-05

Heston Kjerstad

Orioles · LF — every model-projected prop for tonight, ranked by calibrated hit probability.

		Market	Hit %	Edge	Conf	Books
	Limited data	Hits 0.5	64%	+8.8pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.
	Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	62%	+7.5pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.
	Limited data	HR 0.5	13%	-0.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.