PLAYER · 2026-06-16

Kodai Senga

Mets · SP — every model-projected prop for tonight, ranked by calibrated hit probability.

		Market	Hit %	Edge	Conf	Books
	Model Pick	Strikeouts 3.5	70%	+0.5pp	high	PrizePicks 3.5
Manager context Mendoza averages 63 pitches before pulling Senga (9 starts, 0 over 100); CIN 25.2% K-rate vs RHP Quality flags Pitcher small sample. Limited 2026 IP — projection weighted heavily on Bayesian shrinkage toward league mean. K rate may not reflect true talent yet. Salary DK $7,600 Play on DraftKings DFS →
	Model Pick	Strikeouts 4.5	66%	+3.0pp	high	PrizePicks 4.5
Manager context Mendoza averages 63 pitches before pulling Senga (9 starts, 0 over 100); CIN 25.2% K-rate vs RHP Quality flags Pitcher small sample. Limited 2026 IP — projection weighted heavily on Bayesian shrinkage toward league mean. K rate may not reflect true talent yet. Salary DK $7,600 Play on DraftKings DFS →
		Strikeouts 5	52%	+2.4pp	medium	PrizePicks 5
Manager context Mendoza averages 63 pitches before pulling Senga (9 starts, 0 over 100); CIN 25.2% K-rate vs RHP Quality flags Pitcher small sample. Limited 2026 IP — projection weighted heavily on Bayesian shrinkage toward league mean. K rate may not reflect true talent yet. Salary DK $7,600 Play on DraftKings DFS →
		Strikeouts 5.5	52%	+14.5pp	medium	PrizePicks 5.5 Underdog 5.5
Manager context Mendoza averages 63 pitches before pulling Senga (9 starts, 0 over 100); CIN 25.2% K-rate vs RHP Quality flags Pitcher small sample. Limited 2026 IP — projection weighted heavily on Bayesian shrinkage toward league mean. K rate may not reflect true talent yet. Salary DK $7,600 Play on DraftKings DFS →
		Strikeouts 6.5	34%	+4.2pp	low	PrizePicks 6.5
Manager context Mendoza averages 63 pitches before pulling Senga (9 starts, 0 over 100); CIN 25.2% K-rate vs RHP Quality flags Pitcher small sample. Limited 2026 IP — projection weighted heavily on Bayesian shrinkage toward league mean. K rate may not reflect true talent yet. Salary DK $7,600 Play on DraftKings DFS →
		Strikeouts 7.5	26%	-4.3pp	low	PrizePicks 7.5
Manager context Mendoza averages 63 pitches before pulling Senga (9 starts, 0 over 100); CIN 25.2% K-rate vs RHP Quality flags Pitcher small sample. Limited 2026 IP — projection weighted heavily on Bayesian shrinkage toward league mean. K rate may not reflect true talent yet. Salary DK $7,600 Play on DraftKings DFS →
		Strikeouts 8.5	16%	-14.4pp	low	PrizePicks 8.5
Manager context Mendoza averages 63 pitches before pulling Senga (9 starts, 0 over 100); CIN 25.2% K-rate vs RHP Quality flags Pitcher small sample. Limited 2026 IP — projection weighted heavily on Bayesian shrinkage toward league mean. K rate may not reflect true talent yet. Salary DK $7,600 Play on DraftKings DFS →