PLAYER · 2026-06-16
Jesús Luzardo
Phillies · SP — every model-projected prop for tonight, ranked by calibrated hit probability.
| Market | Hit % | Edge | Conf | Books | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model Pick | Strikeouts 4.5 | 70% | +0.5pp | high | PrizePicks 4.5 | |
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Manager context
Mattingly averages 89 pitches before pulling Luzardo (18 starts, 3 over 100); MIA 23.2% K-rate vs LHP
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| Strikeouts 5.5 | 61% | -9.1pp | high | PrizePicks 5.5 | ||
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Manager context
Mattingly averages 89 pitches before pulling Luzardo (18 starts, 3 over 100); MIA 23.2% K-rate vs LHP
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| Strikeouts 6.5 | 46% | -5.6pp | medium | PrizePicks 6.5 Underdog 6.5 | ||
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Manager context
Mattingly averages 89 pitches before pulling Luzardo (18 starts, 3 over 100); MIA 23.2% K-rate vs LHP
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| Strikeouts 7.5 | 31% | +1.2pp | low | PrizePicks 7.5 | ||
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Manager context
Mattingly averages 89 pitches before pulling Luzardo (18 starts, 3 over 100); MIA 23.2% K-rate vs LHP
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| Strikeouts 8.5 | 22% | -7.8pp | low | PrizePicks 8.5 | ||
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Manager context
Mattingly averages 89 pitches before pulling Luzardo (18 starts, 3 over 100); MIA 23.2% K-rate vs LHP
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| Strikeouts 9.5 | 13% | -16.9pp | low | PrizePicks 9.5 | ||
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Manager context
Mattingly averages 89 pitches before pulling Luzardo (18 starts, 3 over 100); MIA 23.2% K-rate vs LHP
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| Strikeouts 11.5 | 13% | -17.5pp | low | PrizePicks 11.5 | ||
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Manager context
Mattingly averages 89 pitches before pulling Luzardo (18 starts, 3 over 100); MIA 23.2% K-rate vs LHP
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