PLAYER · 2026-07-31

Carlos Narváez

Red Sox · C — every model-projected prop for tonight, ranked by calibrated hit probability.

		Market	Hit %	Edge	Conf	Books
	Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	34%	-15.7pp	low	PrizePicks 0.5
Manager context No notable signal for this matchup beyond baseline projection. Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Salary DK $2,100 Play on DraftKings DFS →
	Limited data	Hits 0.5	31%	-18.4pp	low	PrizePicks 0.5 Underdog 0.5
Recent form Narváez .147 over last 14 games (.193 season — slumping) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Salary DK $2,100 Play on DraftKings DFS →
	Limited data	Total Bases 1.5	18%	-11.8pp	low	PrizePicks 1.5
Manager context No notable signal for this matchup beyond baseline projection. Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Salary DK $2,100 Play on DraftKings DFS →
	Limited data	Total Bases 2.5	12%	-17.5pp	low	PrizePicks 2.5
Manager context No notable signal for this matchup beyond baseline projection. Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Salary DK $2,100 Play on DraftKings DFS →
	Limited data	Total Bases 3.5	12%	-17.6pp	low	PrizePicks 3.5
Manager context No notable signal for this matchup beyond baseline projection. Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Salary DK $2,100 Play on DraftKings DFS →
	Limited data	Total Bases 4.5	12%	-17.8pp	low	PrizePicks 4.5
Manager context No notable signal for this matchup beyond baseline projection. Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Salary DK $2,100 Play on DraftKings DFS →
	Limited data	Hits 1.5	10%	-20.3pp	low	PrizePicks 1.5
Recent form Narváez .147 over last 14 games (.193 season — slumping) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Salary DK $2,100 Play on DraftKings DFS →
	Limited data	HR 0.5	6%	-15.8pp	low	PrizePicks 0.5 Underdog 0.5
Manager context No notable signal for this matchup beyond baseline projection. Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Salary DK $2,100 Play on DraftKings DFS →