PLAYER · 2026-08-06

Cristian Pache

Mets · OF — every model-projected prop for tonight, ranked by calibrated hit probability.

		Market	Hit %	Edge	Conf	Books
	Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	62%	+11.9pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.
	Limited data	Hits 0.5	54%	+4.6pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.
	Limited data	HR 0.5	14%	+6.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.