PLAYER · 2026-09-23

Richard Lovelady

Nationals · SP — every model-projected prop for tonight, ranked by calibrated hit probability.

		Market	Hit %	Edge	Conf	Books
	Limited data	Strikeouts 1.5	29%	-5.5pp	low	Underdog 1.5
Manager context Butera averages 25 pitches before pulling Lovelady (5 starts, 0 over 100); DET 23.4% K-rate vs LHP Quality flags Short-outing role. Reliever / opener / swingman — averages under 3 IP per appearance. Model treats them as starters unless gated; predictions historically inflate ~3-5× the realistic K count.