PLAYER · 2026-06-16

Tyler Phillips

Marlins · SP — every model-projected prop for tonight, ranked by calibrated hit probability.

		Market	Hit %	Edge	Conf	Books
	Limited data	Strikeouts 2.5	13%	-57.5pp	low	PrizePicks 2.5
Quality flags Short-outing role. Reliever / opener / swingman — averages under 3 IP per appearance. Model treats them as starters unless gated; predictions historically inflate ~3-5× the realistic K count.
	Limited data	Strikeouts 3.5	13%	-52.7pp	low	PrizePicks 3.5 Underdog 3.5
Quality flags Short-outing role. Reliever / opener / swingman — averages under 3 IP per appearance. Model treats them as starters unless gated; predictions historically inflate ~3-5× the realistic K count.
	Limited data	Strikeouts 4.5	13%	-17.5pp	low	PrizePicks 4.5
Quality flags Short-outing role. Reliever / opener / swingman — averages under 3 IP per appearance. Model treats them as starters unless gated; predictions historically inflate ~3-5× the realistic K count.
	Limited data	Strikeouts 4	13%	-37.5pp	low	PrizePicks 4
Quality flags Short-outing role. Reliever / opener / swingman — averages under 3 IP per appearance. Model treats them as starters unless gated; predictions historically inflate ~3-5× the realistic K count.
	Limited data	Strikeouts 5.5	13%	-17.5pp	low	PrizePicks 5.5
Quality flags Short-outing role. Reliever / opener / swingman — averages under 3 IP per appearance. Model treats them as starters unless gated; predictions historically inflate ~3-5× the realistic K count.
	Limited data	Strikeouts 6.5	13%	-17.5pp	low	PrizePicks 6.5
Quality flags Short-outing role. Reliever / opener / swingman — averages under 3 IP per appearance. Model treats them as starters unless gated; predictions historically inflate ~3-5× the realistic K count.
	Limited data	Strikeouts 7.5	13%	-17.5pp	low	PrizePicks 7.5
Quality flags Short-outing role. Reliever / opener / swingman — averages under 3 IP per appearance. Model treats them as starters unless gated; predictions historically inflate ~3-5× the realistic K count.