PLAYER · 2026-06-16
Josh Naylor
Mariners · 1B — every model-projected prop for tonight, ranked by calibrated hit probability.
| Market | Hit % | Edge | Conf | Books | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hits 0.5 | 63% | -5.5pp | high | PrizePicks 0.5 Underdog 0.5 | ||
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Manager context
Wilson rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Naylor started 95% vs RHP last 30 days
Salary
DK $4,900
Play on DraftKings DFS →
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| Total Bases 0.5 | 54% | -16.3pp | medium | PrizePicks 0.5 | ||
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Manager context
Wilson rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Naylor started 95% vs RHP last 30 days
Salary
DK $4,900
Play on DraftKings DFS →
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| Total Bases 1.5 | 29% | -6.9pp | low | PrizePicks 1.5 Underdog 1.5 | ||
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Manager context
Wilson rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Naylor started 95% vs RHP last 30 days
Salary
DK $4,900
Play on DraftKings DFS →
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| Hits 1.5 | 23% | -6.8pp | low | PrizePicks 1.5 | ||
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Manager context
Wilson rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Naylor started 95% vs RHP last 30 days
Salary
DK $4,900
Play on DraftKings DFS →
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| Total Bases 2.5 | 19% | -11.2pp | low | PrizePicks 2.5 | ||
|
Manager context
Wilson rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Naylor started 95% vs RHP last 30 days
Salary
DK $4,900
Play on DraftKings DFS →
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| Total Bases 3.5 | 16% | -14.1pp | low | PrizePicks 3.5 | ||
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Manager context
Wilson rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Naylor started 95% vs RHP last 30 days
Salary
DK $4,900
Play on DraftKings DFS →
|
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| Total Bases 4.5 | 12% | -17.5pp | low | PrizePicks 4.5 | ||
|
Manager context
Wilson rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Naylor started 95% vs RHP last 30 days
Salary
DK $4,900
Play on DraftKings DFS →
|
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| HR 0.5 | 11% | -12.3pp | low | PrizePicks 0.5 Underdog 0.5 | ||
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Manager context
Wilson rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Naylor started 95% vs RHP last 30 days
Recent form
Naylor 3 HR in last 14 games (5.1% PA vs 2.7% season — pop spiking)
Salary
DK $4,900
Play on DraftKings DFS →
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| Hits 2.5 | 10% | -20.3pp | low | PrizePicks 2.5 | ||
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Manager context
Wilson rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Naylor started 95% vs RHP last 30 days
Salary
DK $4,900
Play on DraftKings DFS →
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