PLAYER · 2026-09-14

Weston Wilson

Mariners · 3B — every model-projected prop for tonight, ranked by calibrated hit probability.

		Market	Hit %	Edge	Conf	Books
	Limited data	Hits 0.5	44%	-2.3pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Wilson rests RHB vs LHP in 4% of starts (5th pct); Wilson started 63% vs LHP last 30 days, batting 9th in tonight's posted lineup Recent form Wilson .279 over last 14 games (.221 season — hot) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	42%	-4.7pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Wilson rests RHB vs LHP in 4% of starts (5th pct); Wilson started 63% vs LHP last 30 days, batting 9th in tonight's posted lineup Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Limited data	HR 0.5	8%	-4.5pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Wilson rests RHB vs LHP in 4% of starts (5th pct); Wilson started 63% vs LHP last 30 days, batting 9th in tonight's posted lineup Recent form Wilson 0 HR in last 14 games (0.0% PA vs 2.5% season — pop quiet) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.