PLAYER · 2026-09-15

Jorge Mateo

Rays · SS — every model-projected prop for tonight, ranked by calibrated hit probability.

		Market	Hit %	Edge	Conf	Books
	Limited data	Hits 0.5	63%	+10.9pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Mateo .108 over last 14 games (.207 season — slumping) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	55%	+2.4pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Limited data	HR 0.5	14%	+2.0pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Mateo 0 HR in last 14 games (0.0% PA vs 2.6% season — pop quiet) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.