PLAYER · 2026-09-14
Carson Kelly
Cubs · C — every model-projected prop for tonight, ranked by calibrated hit probability.
| Market | Hit % | Edge | Conf | Books | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model Pick | Hits 0.5 | 65% | +6.4pp | high | Underdog 0.5 | |
| Total Bases 0.5 | 60% | +1.4pp | high | Underdog 0.5 | ||
| HR 0.5 | 13% | -3.5pp | low | Underdog 0.5 | ||
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Recent form
Kelly 2 HR in last 14 games (4.2% PA vs 2.6% season — pop spiking)
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