PLAYER · 2026-06-16
Willson Contreras
Red Sox · 1B — every model-projected prop for tonight, ranked by calibrated hit probability.
| Market | Hit % | Edge | Conf | Books | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model Pick | Hits 0.5 | 64% | -2.8pp | high | PrizePicks 0.5 Underdog 0.5 | |
|
Recent form
Contreras .375 over last 14 games (.304 season — hot)
|
||||||
| Total Bases 0.5 | 57% | -13.0pp | medium | PrizePicks 0.5 | ||
|
Recent form
Contreras .528 SLG over last 14 (.570 season — flattening)
|
||||||
| Total Bases 1.5 | 41% | +6.3pp | low | PrizePicks 1.5 Underdog 1.5 | ||
|
Recent form
Contreras .528 SLG over last 14 (.570 season — flattening)
|
||||||
| Hits 1.5 | 25% | -5.1pp | low | PrizePicks 1.5 | ||
|
Recent form
Contreras .375 over last 14 games (.304 season — hot)
|
||||||
| Total Bases 2.5 | 23% | -7.0pp | low | PrizePicks 2.5 | ||
|
Recent form
Contreras .528 SLG over last 14 (.570 season — flattening)
|
||||||
| Total Bases 3.5 | 20% | -10.3pp | low | PrizePicks 3.5 | ||
|
Recent form
Contreras .528 SLG over last 14 (.570 season — flattening)
|
||||||
| HR 0.5 | 14% | -11.4pp | low | PrizePicks 0.5 Underdog 0.5 | ||
|
Recent form
Contreras 5 HR in last 14 games (9.8% PA vs 6.1% season — pop spiking)
|
||||||
| Total Bases 5.5 | 12% | -17.6pp | low | PrizePicks 5.5 | ||
|
Recent form
Contreras .528 SLG over last 14 (.570 season — flattening)
|
||||||
| Hits 2.5 | 10% | -20.3pp | low | PrizePicks 2.5 | ||
|
Recent form
Contreras .375 over last 14 games (.304 season — hot)
|
||||||