PLAYER · 2026-08-14

Steven Matz

Rays · SP — every model-projected prop for tonight, ranked by calibrated hit probability.

		Market	Hit %	Edge	Conf	Books
	Limited data	Strikeouts 1.5	71%	+24.7pp	high	Underdog 1.5
Manager context Cash averages 76 pitches before pulling Matz (12 starts, 0 over 100); BAL 27.1% K-rate vs LHP Quality flags Short-outing role. Reliever / opener / swingman — averages under 3 IP per appearance. Model treats them as starters unless gated; predictions historically inflate ~3-5× the realistic K count. Salary DK $6,000 Play on DraftKings DFS →