PLAYER · 2026-06-16

Starling Marte

Royals · RF — every model-projected prop for tonight, ranked by calibrated hit probability.

		Market	Hit %	Edge	Conf	Books
	Limited data	Hits 0.5	64%	-2.4pp	high	PrizePicks 0.5 Underdog 0.5
Recent form Marte .194 over last 14 games (.257 season — slumping) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	56%	-14.3pp	medium	PrizePicks 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Limited data	Total Bases 1.5	33%	+2.9pp	low	PrizePicks 1.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Limited data	Hits 1.5	24%	-5.8pp	low	PrizePicks 1.5
Recent form Marte .194 over last 14 games (.257 season — slumping) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Limited data	Total Bases 2.5	19%	-10.9pp	low	PrizePicks 2.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Limited data	Total Bases 3.5	15%	-14.6pp	low	PrizePicks 3.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Limited data	Total Bases 4.5	12%	-17.5pp	low	PrizePicks 4.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Limited data	Hits 2.5	10%	-20.3pp	low	PrizePicks 2.5
Recent form Marte .194 over last 14 games (.257 season — slumping) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Limited data	HR 0.5	10%	-11.2pp	low	PrizePicks 0.5 Underdog 0.5
Recent form Marte 1 HR in last 14 games (3.0% PA vs 1.3% season — pop spiking) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.