PLAYER · 2026-06-16

MJ Melendez

Mets · DH — every model-projected prop for tonight, ranked by calibrated hit probability.

		Market	Hit %	Edge	Conf	Books
	Limited data	Hits 0.5	65%	+14.4pp	high	PrizePicks 0.5 Underdog 0.5
Manager context Mendoza rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Melendez started 57% vs RHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Salary DK $2,400 Play on DraftKings DFS →
	Limited data	Total Bases 1.5	43%	+12.7pp	low	PrizePicks 1.5
Manager context Mendoza rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Melendez started 57% vs RHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Salary DK $2,400 Play on DraftKings DFS →
	Limited data	Total Bases 2.5	36%	+6.0pp	low	PrizePicks 2.5
Manager context Mendoza rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Melendez started 57% vs RHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Salary DK $2,400 Play on DraftKings DFS →
	Limited data	Hits 1.5	27%	-3.1pp	low	PrizePicks 1.5
Manager context Mendoza rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Melendez started 57% vs RHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Salary DK $2,400 Play on DraftKings DFS →
	Limited data	Total Bases 3.5	25%	-4.9pp	low	PrizePicks 3.5
Manager context Mendoza rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Melendez started 57% vs RHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Salary DK $2,400 Play on DraftKings DFS →
	Limited data	Total Bases 4.5	19%	-11.1pp	low	PrizePicks 4.5
Manager context Mendoza rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Melendez started 57% vs RHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Salary DK $2,400 Play on DraftKings DFS →
	Limited data	HR 0.5	16%	-10.3pp	low	PrizePicks 0.5 Underdog 0.5
Manager context Mendoza rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Melendez started 57% vs RHP last 30 days Recent form Melendez 2 HR in last 14 games (5.3% PA vs 3.4% season — pop spiking) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Salary DK $2,400 Play on DraftKings DFS →