FINAL May 8, 2026
May 8, 2026 · AL Cent

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians

May 8, 2026Progressive FieldDrizzle 55°F · 13 mph, Out To RF
AWAY
Minnesota Twins
16-23
4
vs
HOME
Cleveland Guardians
21-19
6

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIN
Connor Prielipp
Connor Prielipp
IP 5
HOME · CLE
Parker Messick
Parker Messick
IP 5.2

Lineups

AWAY · MIN
  1. 1 Byron Buxton CF
  2. 2 Austin Martin LF
  3. 3 Ryan Jeffers C
  4. 4 Josh Bell DH
  5. 5 Luke Keaschall 2B
  6. 6 Brooks Lee SS
  7. 7 Victor Caratini 1B
  8. 8 Matt Wallner RF
  9. 9 Royce Lewis 3B
HOME · CLE
  1. 1 Steven Kwan LF
  2. 2 Angel Martínez RF
  3. 3 José Ramírez 3B
  4. 4 Rhys Hoskins 1B
  5. 5 David Fry DH
  6. 6 Travis Bazzana 2B
  7. 7 Brayan Rocchio SS
  8. 8 Austin Hedges C
  9. 9 Petey Halpin CF

Box score

  123456789 R
MIN 000001201 4
CLE 400000110 6

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIN
Derek Shelton
B Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.5 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · CLE
Stephen Vogt
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIN
3-7 L3 -21 run diff
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HOME · CLE
6-4 W3 +7 run diff
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Season series: 0-1 with MIN listed first across 1 prior meeting.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Minnesota Twins
  • Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.81 vs actual lineup 2.81
  • Player execution +1.19 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.81 projection by 1.19 (scored 4)
  • Game variance +1.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

HOME · Cleveland Guardians
  • Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.52 vs actual lineup 3.47
  • Player execution +2.53 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.47 projection by 2.53 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +2.48 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Martínez 0-for-4 batting 2nd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 2.8 – 3.5 — actual was 4 – 6.

GAME INSIGHTS

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.