Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Yandy Díaz DH
- 2 Ryan Vilade RF
- 3 Junior Caminero 3B
- 4 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 5 Jonny DeLuca CF
- 6 Ben Williamson 2B
- 7 Chandler Simpson LF
- 8 Nick Fortes C
- 9 Taylor Walls SS
- 1 Jarren Duran LF
- 2 Willson Contreras 1B
- 3 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 4 Masataka Yoshida DH
- 5 Trevor Story SS
- 6 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
- 7 Marcelo Mayer 2B
- 8 Carlos Narváez C
- 9 Caleb Durbin 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-1 with TB listed first across 2 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.44 vs actual lineup 3.48
- Player execution −3.48 R/G Players fell 3.48 short of the lineup's 3.48 projection (scored 0)
- Game variance −3.44 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Díaz 0-for-3 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost −0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.39 vs actual lineup 3.46
- Player execution −1.46 R/G Players fell 1.46 short of the lineup's 3.46 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.39 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Yoshida 0-for-4 batting 4th
Optimal lineups projected 3.4 – 3.4 — actual was 0 – 2.
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Chad Tracy (BOS) has run 28 distinct starting lineups across 30 games this season — that's 93% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 14 for the same span.
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Kevin Cash (TB) has run 30 distinct starting lineups across 30 games this season — that's 100% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 14 for the same span.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.