Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Taylor Ward LF
- 2 Gunnar Henderson SS
- 3 Pete Alonso 1B
- 4 Samuel Basallo C
- 5 Tyler O'Neill RF
- 6 Dylan Beavers DH
- 7 Leody Taveras CF
- 8 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
- 9 Blaze Alexander 3B
- 1 Oneil Cruz CF
- 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds DH
- 4 Ryan O'Hearn RF
- 5 Nick Yorke 3B
- 6 Konnor Griffin SS
- 7 Spencer Horwitz 1B
- 8 Henry Davis C
- 9 Jake Mangum LF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| PIT | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.95 vs actual lineup 3.96
- Player execution −1.96 R/G Players fell 1.96 short of the lineup's 3.96 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.95 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Henderson 0-for-4 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.84 vs actual lineup 2.79
- Player execution +5.21 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.79 projection by 5.21 (scored 8)
- Game variance +5.16 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Mangum 2-for-4 from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.0 – 2.8 — actual was 2 – 8.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.