Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians
Starting pitchers
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.11 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.48 vs actual lineup 2.37
- Player execution +2.63 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.37 projection by 2.63 (scored 5)
- Game variance +2.52 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Shaw HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.47 vs actual lineup 3.40
- Player execution +2.60 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.40 projection by 2.60 (scored 6)
- Game variance +2.53 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Martínez 0-for-3 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 2.5 – 3.5 — actual was 5 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.