ARCHIVE April 5, 2026
April 5, 2026 · AL Cent

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians

April 5, 2026Progressive FieldPartly Cloudy 44°F · 16 mph, L To RGame 2 of doubleheader
AWAY
Chicago Cubs
4-5
5
vs
HOME
Cleveland Guardians
6-4
6

Starting pitchers

AWAY · CHC
Shota Imanaga
Shota Imanaga
IP 5
HOME · CLE
Parker Messick
Parker Messick
IP 5

Box score

  123456789 R
CHC 001002011 5
CLE 000003030 6

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · CHC
Craig Counsell
C Lineup 1.7 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.3 R
HOME · CLE
Stephen Vogt
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · CHC
10-0 W10 +27 run diff
WWWWWWWWWW
HOME · CLE
6-4 W3 +7 run diff
WWWLLLWWWL

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Chicago Cubs
  • Manager lineup cost +0.11 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.48 vs actual lineup 2.37
  • Player execution +2.63 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.37 projection by 2.63 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +2.52 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Shaw HR from the 7-hole

HOME · Cleveland Guardians
  • Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.47 vs actual lineup 3.40
  • Player execution +2.60 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.40 projection by 2.60 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +2.53 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Martínez 0-for-3 batting 2nd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 2.5 – 3.5 — actual was 5 – 6.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.