Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Taylor Ward LF
- 2 Gunnar Henderson SS
- 3 Pete Alonso 1B
- 4 Adley Rutschman C
- 5 Samuel Basallo DH
- 6 Dylan Beavers RF
- 7 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
- 8 Colton Cowser CF
- 9 Blaze Alexander 3B
- 1 Oneil Cruz CF
- 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds LF
- 4 Marcell Ozuna DH
- 5 Ryan O'Hearn RF
- 6 Spencer Horwitz 1B
- 7 Konnor Griffin SS
- 8 Jared Triolo 3B
- 9 Henry Davis C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| PIT | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.63 vs actual lineup 3.68
- Player execution +0.32 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.68 projection by 0.32 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.37 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Alonso 0-for-4 batting 3rd
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.09 vs actual lineup 4.04
- Player execution +0.96 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.04 projection by 0.96 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.91 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Ozuna 0-for-3 batting 4th
Optimal lineups projected 3.6 – 4.1 — actual was 4 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.